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Estimating solar photovoltaic model parameters
Building a solar PV model for forecasting from historical gross PV, irradiance and weather data.
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This report estimates household-level gross PV generation by tuning and evaluating the parameters of a solar PV model based on historical PV generation data, and approximate solar irradiance and temperature data.
Model formation is tested with both measured historical gross PV data from the Ausgrid Solar Homes dataset and with estimated data that is drawn from the complementary work of O’Neil (where gross output is estimated from net metering data - see related data assets below).
Once tuned, the PV model may be used to forecast future gross PV output based only on ambient temperature and solar irradiance forecast data.
